Is Autism Increasing? The "Autism Epidemic" Myth Explained

Is autism increasing? Autism diagnoses have risen sharply in many countries, but the best evidence suggests the number of autistic people has not exploded. Large studies published in 2026 from South Korea, Denmark and Sweden point to the same explanation: we have become much better at recognising autism, especially in girls, women, adults and people without an intellectual disability.

This Myth of the Week looks at where the “autism epidemic” idea comes from, what the research actually shows, where real uncertainty remains, and why epidemic language hurts autistic people.

Key takeaways

Recorded autism diagnoses have risen steeply, but a 2026 South Korean study that screened every child in one community found the true rate stayed roughly stable for 12 years.
In Sweden, the share of newly diagnosed autistic people who also had an intellectual disability fell from about 56% in 2001 to about 7% in 2020, a sign that diagnosis now reaches people who were missed before.
A 2026 Danish study of 2.1 million young people in JAMA Psychiatry found that people diagnosed today look more like the general population than those diagnosed a decade earlier.
Most researchers explain the rise through wider diagnostic criteria, more awareness, better access to assessment and the recognition of autistic girls, women and adults.
Calling autism an “epidemic” frames autistic people as a disaster to be stopped, fuels unproven “cures” and pulls attention away from support and rights.

Is autism increasing, or are diagnoses increasing?

The short answer is that diagnoses are increasing much faster than autism itself. An “epidemic” means a real, rapid rise in how many people have a condition. A rise in diagnoses can happen for other reasons, such as doctors looking harder, definitions getting broader, or people finally being able to get assessed.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported in 2025 that about 1 in 31 eight-year-olds in its monitoring sites had an autism diagnosis in 2022, compared with about 1 in 150 in its first survey two decades earlier. That is a real change in the numbers on paper. The question is what is driving it.

Where does the “autism epidemic” claim come from?

The idea of an “autism epidemic” grew in the late 1990s and 2000s, often linked to the false claim that vaccines cause autism. The 1998 paper that started that claim was retracted by The Lancet in 2010, and large studies since then have found no link, including a 2019 Danish study of 657,461 children in the Annals of Internal Medicine (Hviid et al., 2019).

The phrase returned to the headlines in April 2025, when the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) published the new CDC figures under the title “Autism Epidemic Runs Rampant” (HHS press release). In it, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. described children as “disabled by autism” and promised to find environmental causes. Many autistic people and advocacy groups criticised this framing at the time, as NBC News reported.

What does the evidence show about rising autism rates?

Studies that look at whole populations, rather than only at who has been diagnosed, consistently find that autism was always far more common than older records showed. Here are the most important pieces of evidence.

South Korea: screening every child

A 2026 study in JAMA Pediatrics, led by Dr. Young Shin Kim, screened more than 60,000 seven-year-olds in over 70 elementary schools near Seoul between 2005 and 2017, and gave 2,077 children a full assessment. The estimated true prevalence stayed between about 1.9% and 3.2%, with no consistent upward trend. Over the same years, the share of autistic children already known to health services grew a lot (JAMA Pediatrics; IFLScience summary).

In other words, the number of autistic children stayed roughly the same; what changed was how many of them were found. The children who had not been identified tended to have less obvious support needs and were more likely to be girls. As with any single-community study, the results may not apply everywhere.

England: autistic adults were already here

If autism were truly new, older adults should be far less likely to be autistic than young people. A 2011 study in the Archives of General Psychiatry, led by Professor Traolach Brugha, assessed adults across England and found about 9.8 per 1,000 met criteria for autism, with no difference by age. None of the autistic adults it identified had been diagnosed (EurekAlert summary).

Sweden and Denmark: who gets diagnosed has changed

A 2026 study in Psychiatry Research from the Gillberg Neuropsychiatry Centre in Gothenburg followed more than 3 million people born in Sweden. Autism diagnoses rose by roughly 800% between 2001 and 2020, while the share of newly diagnosed people with an intellectual disability fell from 55.8% to 6.7% (University of Gothenburg). The researchers read this as a change in diagnostic practice, not a change in autism itself.

A September 2026 study in JAMA Psychiatry, from Aarhus University and the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, compared 2.1 million Danish children and teenagers over 2012–2022. Factors once strongly tied to an autism or ADHD diagnosis, such as low birth weight, became much weaker predictors over time (ScienceDaily; The Transmitter). The authors say they cannot yet tell which change, such as awareness or access, mattered most.

Girls, women and adults: the missing autistic people

A February 2026 study in The BMJ of 2.7 million people born in Sweden found the gap between male and female diagnoses shrank with age, approaching 1:1 by age 20 (BMJ Group). An August 2026 study in JAMA Network Open of 171,134 patients in a US health system found that the post-2020 rise was driven mainly by more diagnoses in girls and women (Saint Louis University). We explore this in our piece on why so many autistic women are diagnosed late.

Why are autism rates rising, then?

Researchers point to several ordinary, overlapping reasons. As a September 2026 PsyPost review put it, scientists are converging on an “unglamorous answer.”

Wider criteria: in 2013 the DSM-5 brought separate labels, including Asperger syndrome, into one “autism spectrum disorder” diagnosis.
More awareness: parents, teachers, doctors and autistic people themselves now recognise autism that would once have been called shyness, anxiety or “difficult behaviour”.
Access to support: in many countries, school help and services depend on a diagnosis, which encourages assessment.
Late diagnosis: many adults, especially women, are now being diagnosed for the first time.
Less stigma: as autism is better understood, more families and adults seek a diagnosis rather than avoid one.

Is any of the rise real?

Honest science leaves some room for uncertainty. A 2014 Aarhus University study in JAMA Pediatrics estimated that about 60% of the rise in Danish diagnoses could be explained by changes in diagnosis and registration, leaving 40% unexplained (Aarhus University). Known factors such as older parental age may have a modest real effect. None of this adds up to a sudden epidemic.

There is also a fair debate inside the autism community. Some researchers and parents of autistic people with high support needs worry that a very broad spectrum can make their needs less visible in policy and funding. Taking that concern seriously means better support for everyone across the spectrum, not a return to fear-based “epidemic” language.

Why does the “autism epidemic” myth harm autistic people?

Epidemic language treats autistic people as the problem. It suggests autism is a disaster spreading through society that must be stopped, rather than a lifelong way of being that needs understanding and support.

It pushes families towards unproven and sometimes dangerous “cures”, such as chelation or extreme diets, sold as a way to reverse the “epidemic”.
It feeds the search for someone to blame, from vaccines to parents, which has helped fuel vaccine hesitancy and outbreaks of measles.
It shifts research money towards hunting for causes and away from what autistic people say they need: support, accessible services, mental health care and inclusion.
It makes autistic adults, who are living proof that autism is not new, invisible.

Misinformation spreads fast. A study presented at the American Academy of Pediatrics conference in October 2026 analysed 53 TikTok videos about acetaminophen (paracetamol) and autism. Videos with misinformation made up 28.3% of the sample but drew 52.4% of the 28 million views (Contemporary Pediatrics). It is a conference abstract, not yet a full peer-reviewed paper.

What should we focus on instead?

If more autistic people are finally being recognised, the real challenge is meeting their needs: shorter waiting lists for assessment, support in school and work, adult services, and research shaped by autistic people themselves. Read more of our myth-busting explainers and plain-language research summaries.

FAQ

Is there an autism epidemic?

No. Diagnoses have risen steeply, but studies that screen whole populations suggest the true number of autistic people has stayed fairly stable. Most of the rise reflects better recognition and wider criteria.

Why are more girls and women being diagnosed with autism?

Older diagnostic criteria were based mostly on boys, so many autistic girls and women were missed or misdiagnosed. As awareness improves, they are being diagnosed, often in their teens or adulthood.

Do vaccines cause the rise in autism?

No. The 1998 study that claimed a link was retracted, and large studies involving millions of children have found no connection between vaccines and autism.

What does “1 in 31” mean?

It is the CDC estimate that about 1 in 31 eight-year-olds in its US monitoring sites had an autism diagnosis in 2022. It measures recorded diagnoses in those areas, not proof that autism itself is spreading.

Kaynaklar

This post was prepared with AI assistance and reviewed by the OtizmTV editorial team.

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Is Autism Increasing? Why the “Autism Epidemic” Is a Myth